Outlook teleological If one considers the scale Kardashev as a predictive scheme, even normative, expected a technological future, rather than as a single energy scale, it becomes purposive and we predicted an " end of history ". Viewed as a description of past and future history of mankind, it could be compared to theory Marxist of modes of production which also includes proposals on interactions between technology and social structures, albeit on a shorter period.
Weakness of such speculation
It has been suggested that since we can not understand advanced civilizations, we could not predict their behavior. While visions of Kardashev may not correspond to the future of advanced civilizations. This argument is developed in the book Evolving the Alien: The Science of Extraterrestrial Life, Jack Cohen and Ian Stewart . It is also possible that the unique conditions on Earth can provide specific technologies to develop rapidly, then they would have been delayed for civilizations do not benefit from such conditions. The list of these alleged conditions specific to the Earth and discovered that they have permitted is rather long. Here are some examples:
It is possible that the conditions necessary for the formation of hydrocarbons from coal and natural gas have not been met on other planets. These fossil fuels were needed to make us (temporarily) independent of wood fuels and animals. Although energy hydraulic , wind and solar have been known for a long time, they are poorly developed until industrial engineering materials to improve their performance. These techniques, energy-intensive, could not themselves be developed without sufficient power supply. A similar observation applies to nuclear reactors , energy sources much more powerful that would not have been possible without the fossil fuels, including limited resources or ore of uranium.
Counter-argument: abundance of other sources
Human perception is tainted with a bias for natural ways of energy development of human civilization. During the two oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 , the hyper-industrialized societies have continued to operate, many have turned to finding alternative energy technology on a large scale, from the perspective that they can provide the energy needed to further developing industrial and commercial , although the production of fossil fuels were to dry up.
This development achieved, it is possible that a company can grow without going through a stage production of fossil fuels. This version of the argument of Buckminster Fuller on solar energy is consistent with the idea of Paul Hawken of industrial ecology that the use of fossil fuels is neither essential nor desirable, given its harmful effects and the existence of alternative energy sources. The principles of operation of the fuel cell was discovered by Christian Friedrich Schnbein from 1838 , and their application by Sir William Grove began in 1843 , well before the widespread use of fossil fuels other than coal , making it yet a plausible alien civilization has used the fuel cell instead of oil. The industrial exploitation of oil , which was initiated by Edwin Drake , was begun in the 1850s.
Implications for Civilization
There are many historical examples of civilizations undergoing large-scale transitions, such as the Industrial Revolution and the Renaissance. Similarly, transitions between levels of scale Kardashev are likely to represent the troubled times of social upheaval, since they require to overcome the obstacle of limited available resources in the territory occupied by a civilization. Current speculation suggests that the transition from Type 0 to Type I involves a great risk of self-destruction as the living space occupies the entire home planet. The Malthusian catastrophe is an example of such a speculation.
Some authors have emphasized that a period of great upheaval could be the beginnings of a rise to a Type I civilization .
Communication Constraints
It is expensive for an inferior civilization to Type I, attempting to make contact with other more advanced civilizations, for reasons of transmission power required. It was calculated that to obtain reliable and sufficiently powerful transmitter to be noticed by a Type II civilization, between 1 and 10 trillion dollars would be needed. The upper limit equivalent to the gross domestic product of the United States since the late 1990s until the early twenty-first century . Thus, it was suggested that civilization has advanced greatly in the type I before the energy required for effective contact with another civilization becomes bearable for its economic resources.
Once contact is established between the two civilizations, and their mutual location known, the energy cost required to maintain contact and exchange information can then be significantly reduced by using technologies transmissions very directional. In 1974 , the Arecibo radio telescope has sent a message that will travel 25,000 light years away , toward the globular cluster in Hercules. A larger antenna and wavelengths shorter would have allowed the same energy to be focused towards the more distant still. The program SETI is largely based on such possibilities.
Extrapolation hypothetical
The exponential growth of this scale leads to extrapolate types of still more advanced civilizations. For example:
- Type IV civilization control all the energy of a supercluster galaxy (approximately 10 46 W). In the case of humanity, for example, it could be the Virgo supercluster.
- Type V: the available energy setting dominated equals that of all the universe visible approximately October 1956 W. Such a civilization defies scientific and already seems quite unrealistic. This is theoretically the ultimate barrier to expansion.
Imaginary Projections
They are found primarily in science fiction and are not "officially" established, and therefore differ according to the authors. Here are some examples, which are based on the theory of Multiverse :
- Type VI: Such a civilization could manipulate and alter the laws of physics to the point of acquiring the power to colonize other worlds, and even develop them at will by manipulating their cosmological parameters. This civilization could then migrate from one universe to another as and when they are aging , and thus become potentially eternal. The energy level of several universes added could settle at around 10 66 W, an extension of the lower levels. The only border is now the full potential of the Multiverse.
- Type VII: The civilization now equal the level of a deity , able to create universes at will by the provocation of Big Bangs artificial previously configured, as an extension of the Multiverse , for use as energy sources settlement area and, after a sufficient expansion. Their energy output is then potentially infinite, limited only by the number and size of the universe they are able to create. It could reach the dizzy heights of 10 76 or even 10 100 ( googol ) W. A civilization of this type would likely be immortal, perpetually migrating from one universe to another and always creating new worlds in anticipation of its next migration. The only limitation that remains is its ability to increase or maintain the total mass of the existing energy, from universe to universe: the least energy loss condemns it, sooner or later, find themselves unable to create term universe large enough to meet its energy needs and population, forcing it to stop its growth or to decrease until extinction. The new science fiction of Isaac Asimov The Last Question depicts an example of an entity possessing the technology of a civilization of Type VII .
Obviously, one could still imagine the existence of several Multiverse, opening new opportunities for development in civilization, and so on through a process of setting abyss. The conclusion is therefore that, in the absence of balance between resources and needs, civilization tends inevitably to endless expansion.
Hypothetical Future
Science fiction behind these imaginary projections we also offer guidance on the hypothetical future changes corresponding to fractional values of the scale Kardashev. Here is a possible future, whose proposals are based on scientific literature. The article by Nikolai Kardashev the inevitable and possible structures of supercivilisations, where he exhibited an increasing energy consumption leads to technological progress, at a reduced cohesion and a fluctuation in the probability of survival and contact is an explanation of this section. Articles and Civilization Cosmology and transmission of information by extraterrestrial civilizations also mention these civilizations and their transformation. Most of these explanations can be found in energy and culture that develops in more detail the contents of this article. It is devoted to the theoretical development trends of advanced civilizations with a description of each type. This section follows the original scheme without quoting word for word.
Type I
Michio Kaku quotes Dyson believes that the earth will lead to a Type I civilization to 2200 , based on an extrapolation of current growth rate of energy consumption in the world.
| Type I planetary civilization | |
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| of (10 16 W 10 19 W) | between (10 20 W and 10 23 W) | previously (10 24 W 10 26 W) (debatable) |
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| Colonization and industrialization of space near mining of asteroids , fossil fuel extraction and energy planetary | First interstellar travel | Tensions caused by the size of the civilization that could lead to secession in several planetary civilization - a civilization in decline since the beginning of type I Beginning of the construction of a Dyson sphere , a disk Alderson , or the Ringworld. |
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| Evolutionary trends: |
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 | Increasing levels of technology, expansion of space exploration, space power sources, increasing numbers of outbreaks of non-terrestrial civilization, growing energy consumption, extension of inhabited land |
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 | Increasing decentralization, differentiation companies by breaking of social ties due to time lags Communications |
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Type II
According to Kaku, Kardashev would have foreseen the development of such a civilization for the year 5200.
| Expansion of a Type II civilization throughout the solar system | |
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| of (10 26 W 10 29 W) | between (10 and 30 W 10 33 W) (debatable) | previously (10 34 W 10 36 W) (debatable) |
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| Dyson sphere is completed, exploration and colonization of all the nearby stellar systems | Stellar Engineering and propellant Shkadov | Tensions caused by the size of the civilization that can lead to the secession of the various star systems in many civilizations - a civilization in decline mono-stellar, galactic colonization and inter-galactic company can be automated |
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| Evolutionary trends: |
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| Increasing levels of technology, growth in the number of stars colonized, centralized systems increasingly draining resources from other star systems have not yet been colonized - leading to ever greater expansion |
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| Decentralization, increasing likelihood of secession in isolated star systems, if resources are not properly distributed resources that can be again subjected to armed conflicts that had disappeared during the Type I |
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Type III
According to Kaku, Kardashev provided for the development of this type of civilization to 7800.
| Type III completion of the colonization of the Milky Way | |
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| of (10 36 W 10 39 W) (debatable) | between (10 and 10 40 W 43 W) (debatable) | previously (10 44 W 10 46 W) (debatable) |
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| (Continued) colonization of nearby galaxies | Highly hypothetical, from here any more suppost can be made for higher levels | |
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| Evolutionary trends: |
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| Increasing levels of technology, centralized systems drain out all system resources not yet exploited - leading to an increasing expansion |
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| Slower growth in galaxies colonized because of low speed making it impossible centralization |
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Type IV and V
Probably around 9000 / 10 000 for Type IV and approximately 12,000 / 13,000 for Type V.
| Type IV Colonization of the local supercluster (10 46 W 10 56 W) Possible leak out of the universe through a black hole artificial | |
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| Type V Colonization of all the universe visible (10 to 10 56 W 66 W) |
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Current
Projected Range Kardashev until 2040
Here are the past values and forecast of global energy production data by the International Energy Agency :
| Year | Energy Production | Equivalent fractional
the scale of Kardashev |
|---|
| exam joules / year | tera watt | ATV | Mtoe |
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| 1900 | 21 | 0.67 | 20 | 500 | 0.58 |
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| 1970 | 190 | 6.0 | 180 | 4500 | 0.68 |
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| 1973 | 260 | 8.2 | 240 | 6200 | 0.69 |
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| 1985 | 290 | 9.2 | 270 | 6900 | 0.70 |
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| 1989 | 320 | 10 | 300 | 7600 | 0.70 |
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| 1993 | 340 | 11 | 320 | 8100 | 0.70 |
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| 1995 | 360 | 12 | 340 | 8700 | 0.71 |
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| 2000 | 420 | 13 | 400 | 10000 | 0.71 |
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| 2001 | 420 | 13 | 400 | 10000 | 0.71 |
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| 2002 | 430 | 14 | 410 | 10400 | 0.71 |
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| 2004 | 440 | 14 | 420 | 10600 | 0.72 |
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| 2010 | 510 | 16 | 480 | 12100 | 0.72 |
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| 2030 | 680 | 22 | 650 | 16300 | 0.73 |
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Examples of different types of Kardashev in fiction
The authors of science fiction did not write their works with the scale of Kardashev / B> in mind, also estimate the types, below, is neither definitive nor complete nor absolute. The oivilisations are classified into the type they meet about the criteria and are in transition to a more or less advanced stage, according to type.
- Type Zero (By way of development of the mother planet .
- Type I (development of the planet mother completed / expansion to the rest of the planetary system)
- Type II (development of the planetary system completed / expansion to the rest of the galaxy)
- Type III (construction of the galaxy completed / expansion to the rest of the Universe)
- Type IV and Type V (spatial galactic superclusters, and even the universe completed)
Relations with the sociology and anthropology
Kardashev theory can be seen as extending to other social theories , and especially that of social evolutionism. It approaches the theory of Leslie White , author of The Evolution of Culture: The Development of Civilization to the Fall of Rome (1959). White has tried to build a theory explaining the entire history of mankind. Technology is the major factor in this theory: "The technological advances determine the social organization , "writes White, echoing the thesis oldest Lewis Henry Morgan. He proposed as a measure of how advanced a society measure energy consumption (which gave its name theory of changes in energy crops). He identified five stages of human development. In the first men use only their muscle power. In the second, they serve as pets. In the third (that White called agricultural revolution ), they use energy from biomass plant. In the fourth they learn to extract fossil fuels : coal, oil and natural gas. Finally, the fifth stage, they use the nuclear energy. White introduced the formula: P = E T, where E is the energy consumed, and T is a coefficient depending on the effectiveness of techniques using this energy.
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